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Polling Firm Says Elon Poll Flawed In a memo dated March 16, Public Opinion Strategies concluded that the Elon University poll “results are in no way representative of voter attitudes regarding the upcoming ballot issue.” The review cites two major errors in the survey’s methodology. First, it explains that the Elon poll “is not reflective of the composition of the electorate.” Specifically, the review notes that the Elon poll surveyed the general population, not registered voters, even though only registered voters will be allowed to vote in the May 8, primary. Additionally, the review points out that voting on the amendment “will correspond with the Republican primary for President,” which means that those “who support the traditional definition of marriage will make up a disproportionate share of the electorate.” Secondly, the review points out that the Elon poll “does not test the actual ballot language” of the Marriage Protection Amendment, which reads: “Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State.” Instead, the Elon Poll asked respondents whether they support or oppose “an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would ban same-sex marriage.” According to the review by Public Opinion Strategies, using actual ballot language is important in determining voter support or opposition for an initiative. “In completing voter research on behalf of hundreds of ballot issues over the last 25 years, there is a huge body of research that demonstrates that the actual ballot language has a significant impact on support and opposition,” the review states. “It is simply wrong to assume the Elon University survey language, and results, are representative of actual current voter attitudes toward the constitutional amendment.” The Public Opinion Strategies review also notes that its own recent poll on the Marriage Protection Amendment, which used the actual amendment language and surveyed likely voters, found that 59 percent of respondents supported the amendment. Additionally, a recent Civitas Institute poll of likely North Carolina voters that also used the actual language of the Marriage Protection Amendment, found that 64 percent of respondents support the amendment. “Homosexual activists and their allies in the media want North Carolinians to believe the majority of the public supports the redefinition of marriage, and they use flawed polls, like the Elon University one, for this purpose,” said Bill Brooks, president of the North Carolina Family Policy Council. “They do not want pro-marriage amendment voters to go to the polls on May 8 because they know that when citizens are given the opportunity to preserve the institution of marriage as only between one man and one woman in the State Constitution, they will vote to do so by wide margins. We have seen this in every other state where a Marriage Protection Amendment has been on the ballot, and we expect to see it again here in North Carolina. We believe marriage supporters will ignore the misinformation from opponents, and get themselves and their friends and family to the polls to vote in the May 8, 2012 primary.” Related resources: Copyright © 2012. North Carolina Family Policy Council. All rights reserved.
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